Shelf life prediction for chocolatiers
Ganache shelf life prediction — trained on real measured recipes
The ChocoX Shelf-Life Predictor uses a machine-learning model trained on ganache recipes with measured water-activity values. Enter a recipe, get a considered prediction — water activity, shelf-life category, and which ingredients moved the number.
How the prediction works
Machine learning trained on real aw data
Most ganache shelf-life guides give you rules of thumb. The ChocoX Shelf-Life Predictor does something different: it was trained on a dataset of real ganache recipes with laboratory-measured water-activity values, so its predictions reflect how actual recipes behave in practice, not just theoretical models.
Enter each ingredient and its weight in grams. The program recognises what each ingredient is, feeds it into the model, and returns a predicted water activity with a conservative worst case. It then assigns a shelf-life category — short, medium or long — and shows you which ingredients pushed the aw up or down.
- Predicted water activity and cautious worst case
- Shelf-life category with a confidence rating
- Ingredient-level explanation of what moved aw
- Explore tab: see how changing amounts affects the prediction
- Prints a guidance card to keep with the recipe
Independently validated
Tested against 250+ recipes in the Callebaut Chocolatier’s Kitchen
To test the model, we ran it against every shelf-life recipe in Callebaut’s Chocolatier’s Kitchen. None of these recipes were used in training — so this was a genuine test against a reference the trade already trusts, on data the model had never seen.
93% of predictions agreed with the book or were more cautious. 52 of the 55 genuinely short-life recipes were correctly flagged. Where the model disagreed, it almost always erred on the side of caution — saying “use it sooner” rather than “it will keep longer”. That is the right direction for a tool designed to help with food safety decisions.
Shelf life prediction is guidance, not a laboratory certificate. For anything you sell commercially, confirm with a real keeping trial or a laboratory aw measurement.
Formulate with confidence
Change a recipe, see the impact immediately
The Predictor’s Explore screen lets you adjust ingredient amounts and see how the predicted water activity changes in real time. Want to know what an extra 10g of invert sugar does? Or whether reducing cream by 15g extends the shelf-life category? You can explore that before you weigh anything out — and before you make a batch.
Take the guesswork out of ganache shelf life
Buy the ChocoX Shelf-Life Predictor once for £25. A Windows desktop program that works offline on your own PC — no subscription, no account needed.